Research Note — Research
Draft — M1 audit complete; ship-blockers remediated 2026-05-19
The non-US renewables build-out is now structurally larger than the US one, growing faster, and is happening in policy regimes that are getting more supportive while US policy gets less so. Over 2025-2030, the IEA expects global renewable power capacity to roughly double — +4,600 GW — with the US specifically revised down by ~50% in the IEA's 2025 forecast versus 2024 owing to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act's repeal of wind/solar tax credits. The IEA explicitly identifies China as accounting for ~60% of the global increase and solar PV as ~80% of the global capacity addition; on a region-by-region read of the 2025 forecast, the dominant growth markets are China, India, the EU + UK, and MENA, with the US ranking materially below its 2024-forecast trajectory. The phrase "outside the US" is a structural characterization of where the marginal MWh is being built — not a sourced single statistic.1,3,22
The investable opportunity sits at the intersection of (1) European grid and transmission build-outs anchored by REPowerEU, (2) Indian utility-scale solar at unprecedented auction velocity, (3) UK offshore wind under the post-AR6 contracts-for-difference regime, (4) MENA sovereign-backed solar/hydrogen mega-projects, and (5) a globally-diversified renewables operating-platform layer (Iberdrola, Brookfield Renewable, Enel).
Four structural shifts have converged. None are speculative; each is sourced to a primary regulator or industry body.
The OBBBA, signed by President Trump on July 4, 2025, accelerated the phase-out of the Section 45Y production tax credit and Section 48E investment tax credit for wind and solar: construction must begin before July 5, 2026 or the facility must be placed in service before January 1, 2028 to qualify.22,23 A follow-on executive order (July 7, 2025) directed Treasury to "strictly enforce" the termination.23 The IEA's October 2025 outlook responded by revising US renewable growth down ~50% year-over-year.3 This is the seed of the BBC-article observation the counterparty sent — even that article's renewable-positive mentions (NextEra +17% YTD, Vestas/Ørsted profits up, Octopus solar sales +50%) reflect a market repricing global, not US, renewable exposure.35
The point is not that US renewables die — wind/solar started before 2025 continue to receive PTC/ITC, and non-wind/non-solar credits (geothermal, nuclear, storage) extend through 2033.22 The point is that the incremental growth-rate of US renewables compresses materially while every other major market accelerates.
REPowerEU, launched May 2022, raised the binding EU renewable-energy share target to 42.5% by 2030 with ambition to 45%.6 As of May 2025 (3-year stocktake), renewables already supplied 47% of EU electricity; installed wind + solar +58% cumulative 2021-2024 with another +16% expected in 2025.7 The European Commission states it has mobilized close to €300 bn to fund the REPowerEU Plan, with installed renewable capacity of a record 406 GW of new solar and +234 GW of wind since 2022.6 At the two-year stocktake (May 2024), the Commission reported almost 96 GW of new solar and +33 GW of wind since 2022.8
The IEA revised its Europe forecast modestly upward in October 2025 on the back of corporate PPA strength in Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland (Renewables 2025 chart shows EU as one of the upward regional revisions).2 Corporate PPAs, utility contracts, and merchant plants together now drive 30% of global renewable capacity expansion to 2030 — double the share in the prior year's forecast.3 That's the financialization mechanism: hyperscaler and industrial offtake demand is structurally replacing government subsidy as the marginal funder.
India committed at COP-26 to 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030.11 As of January 2026, non-fossil capacity was 272 GW (52.3%) of total installed capacity of 520.5 GW; India crossed the 50% non-fossil milestone in June 2025 — five years ahead of NDC schedule.13,11 As of 30 April 2026 (MNRE physical-progress snapshot), cumulative total renewable energy was 279.26 GW, with 154.24 GW of solar and 56.44 GW of wind.14
The IEA upgraded India's forecast by ~10% and states India is "on course to become the second-largest renewables growth market globally, after China, and is expected to comfortably reach its ambitious target by 2030."3,4 India's Power Ministry has reported 67,554 MW of Letters of Award issued for renewable-power procurement tenders since April 2023, with no cancellations after issuance.12
The IEA upgraded its MENA forecast by 25% — the largest regional upgrade of the 2025 report — "driven by faster-than-expected developments in Saudi Arabia this year."4 Saudi Arabia is set to award ~14 GW of solar and wind projects in 2026 alone, toward a 2030 target of 58.7 GW.15 NEOM Green Hydrogen — ACWA Power + Air Products + NEOM JV — closed on an $8.4 bn green-hydrogen mega-plant integrating up to 4 GW of combined dedicated solar and wind, with production "scheduled to begin by the end of 2026" of up to 600 tonnes/day of carbon-free hydrogen in the form of green ammonia.16
Parallel: China's deflationary push. Chinese polysilicon prices fell 72% from 2023 to April 2025; Chinese solar modules reached CNY 0.68 ($0.09)/W — a level industry analysts describe as "unhealthy for module producers" but bullish for project economics outside China.28,29 Modules delivered to European sites are trading below €0.10/W.30 Every non-US country building utility-scale solar buys at distressed-cycle prices — compressing capex, lifting IRRs across India, MENA, LatAm, Southeast Asia, Europe. The US sits behind tariff walls AND no longer has the IRA tax credit subsidizing higher domestic-content costs.
The four shifts stack. The marginal MWh of global renewable supply over 2025-2030 is being built across non-US geographies, with cheaper Chinese modules, under accelerating policy support, and financed increasingly by corporate PPAs from hyperscaler data-center demand that is itself growing faster outside the US than in it. ENTSO-E (May 2026 report) states European data-centre electricity demand is expected to grow by more than 50% between 2025 and 2030; the EU Cloud and AI Development Act, expected later in 2026, aims to triple installed data-centre capacity in the EU within five to seven years.32 ETCIO India projects Indian data-center load 1 GW → 13 GW by FY32, 44% CAGR.34 That last point is the bridge to Section 6.
The largest investable renewable build-out by depth and breadth. +630 GW 2025-2030 taking total to 1,612 GW by 2030 — up 67%.2 Three-quarters of growth comes from UK + Germany + Spain + Italy + France + Poland.2 Investable via pan-European utilities (Iberdrola, Enel, EDP) and pure-play developers (Acciona Energía, EDP Renováveis). EU's regulatory regime is the world's most predictable: Renewable Energy Directive (binding 42.5-45% by 2030) plus country-level National Energy and Climate Plans give ~5-year capex visibility.6 Spain has the best continental solar resource, lowest power prices (Enel models €62/MWh by 2027 vs €104/MWh in Italy), aggressive corporate PPA market.27
AR6 (September 2024) was a record: 131 projects, 9.6 GW awarded — almost triple AR5 — at £1.5 bn annual budget.9 5.3 GW of offshore wind awarded (vs zero in AR5) — 4.9 GW of fixed-bottom at clearing prices of £54.23 / £58.87 per MWh and 0.4 GW of floating at £139.93 per MWh, all in 2012 prices.10 The headline offshore project was Ørsted's Hornsea 3 — gross capacity 2,955 MW (the world's largest single offshore wind farm by capacity), with Ørsted also receiving a separate 2,400 MW CfD for Hornsea 4.40 In May 2025, Ørsted discontinued the Hornsea 4 project in its current form, citing higher supply-chain costs, interest rates, and execution risk, while retaining seabed rights, the grid connection agreement, and Development Consent Order for future re-development.41 The UK government's 60 GW offshore wind by 2030 ambition implies a highly demanding rate for AR7-9, but the demand-side commitment is firm.10 The UK is also Iberdrola's #1 investment destination (€20 bn of €58 bn plan).17
Treat India as a single structurally-accelerating story. The T&D angle is arguably more attractive than the generation angle: Power Grid Corporation of India has projected ₹3.07 lakh crore (~$37 bn) capex through FY32, 91% transmission, riding integration of 500 GW of non-fossil generation that won't otherwise reach demand centers.25,26 The PLI scheme has anchored a domestic solar-cell/module industry that reduces China-import exposure. INR/USD depreciation has averaged 2-4%/year and is hedgeable / discountable.
Saudi Arabia's 58.7 GW 2030 target with 14 GW tendered in 2026 alone makes this the fastest-growing renewable build in the world after India and China.15 Narrower investable surface: dominant developer is ACWA Power (Tadawul-listed, accessible via QFI or Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA)). Sovereign risk real but sovereigns are AA-rated (Saudi Arabia) or AA+ (UAE); renewable build is part of formal Vision 2030 economic diversification.
Australia targets an 82% share of renewable electricity in the grid by 2030; Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) is the primary mechanism. As of Dec 2025, CIS Tenders 1-4 supported a combined 12 GW of potential generation capacity yet to reach FID.31 On 29 July 2025, the Australian government uplifted the CIS target from 32 GW to 40 GW by 2030, supporting ~AUD 73 bn of investment.42 Longer thesis: Australian solar + Asian proximity = green H₂ / green NH₃ exporter to Japan / South Korea — but that's 2030+.
Combined LatAm renewable capacity 389 GW in 2025 (+6%): Brazil 228 GW (largest), Mexico 35 GW, Chile 26.5 GW.33 Chile is the regional leader in storage: 1.6 GW BESS operational, 6.8 GW under construction, 27 GW in pipeline.19 The catch: transmission lag is the binding constraint. Brazil is adding over 6,000 km of transmission lines in 2026 across two auctions; ~$120 bn reais (~$24 bn) of transmission investment planned through 2030 — but ~20% of available solar and wind energy was lost to curtailment nationally in 2025 per Volt Robotics.20 Investable shape: T&D-exposed names rather than pure generation.
Southeast Asia: IEA upgraded ASEAN forecast on hydropower + auction schemes. Vietnam regional leader by capacity but EVN creditworthiness concerns. Indonesia: 8 GW geothermal target by 2030; PT Pertamina Geothermal (PGEO.JK) interesting but illiquid. Japan: offshore wind auction regime mature but execution slow; the more interesting thesis is Japan as offtaker of green H₂ / NH₃ from Australia + Saudi — accessed via BEP / ACWA / Iberdrola, not direct Japan exposure. Africa: 11.3 GW added in 2025 (+15.9%, highest-ever annual increase) — but Africa is only 1.6% of new global renewable capacity, narrow investable surface.5
The dominant category. ~80% of the 4,600 GW global capacity addition through 2030 — equivalent to 6× the 2024 installed base by 2030.1,3 Chinese-deflation tailwind ($0.09/W modules) means project-level IRRs at multi-year highs even as power prices soften. Best exposure: developers with strong land/grid-connection pipelines (Adani Green, Iberdrola, EDP Renováveis); regulated-network operators downstream that benefit from RAB growth without taking generation risk.
The IEA expects onshore wind capacity additions to grow 45% over 2025-2030 versus 2019-2024, reaching 732 GW cumulative.4 Vestas — the global onshore-wind leader at 30% market share ex-China in 2024 — forecasts onshore wind growing 7-9% CAGR ex-China to 2030.21 Vestas's order backlog hit a record €71.9 bn end-2025.21
The most underweighted category in retail renewable thinking and the most attractive on risk-adjusted basis. Renewables-without-transmission is renewables-with-curtailment.
Higher-risk, higher-upside. Vestas forecasts offshore wind +20-25% CAGR to 2030.21 The post-AR6 UK pipeline (60 GW target by 2030) is the world's largest single offshore market. Ørsted dominates execution — 18.3 GW installed + decided + under construction; grows to >18 GW installed by 2027; the new EU North Sea Wind Pact targets up to 15 GW/year of EU build by 2040.18,37
Fastest-growing single renewable subcategory. Brookfield Renewable targets 10 GW/year run-rate by 2027.24 Chile alone has 27 GW BESS pipeline.19 Iberdrola allocated €1.5 bn / 2 GW BESS, mainly Spain + Australia.26 Pumped hydro forecast to double annual additions to 16.5 GW/year by 2030 per the IEA.4
<1% of global capacity but strategic for round-the-clock baseload. Best assets in Indonesia, Kenya, Iceland, Philippines, US. Geothermal retained full IRA tax credits through 2033 under OBBBA — the only renewable subcategory that didn't get clipped.22 Ormat is in ICLN at 3.2% weight.
Largely tapped in developed markets; +154 GW new 2025-2030. Growth in India + ASEAN + Africa. Investable mostly via integrated platforms with hydro positions (Brookfield Renewable's hydro fleet is ~8.5 GW out of ~47 GW operating capacity, or ~18%; hydro is a larger share of LTM FFO than of installed capacity. Iberdrola Iberia hydro 13.1 GW; Enel has Italian hydro).24
Aspirational endgame. NEOM Green Hydrogen ($8.4 bn, 4 GW dedicated solar+wind) is the largest project in flight.16 Saudi National Hydrogen Strategy: 4 mt/yr clean H₂ by 2035. Investable: ACWA Power (development); receivers: Japan (JERA, Kawasaki Heavy), Germany (RWE, Linde). H₂ economics still depend on cost-curve assumptions that aren't yet bankable ex-policy. Watch via Iberdrola/ACWA/RWE.
| # | Geo × Category | Why it wins | Investable via |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EU grids (esp. Iberia) | Iberdrola + Enel between them allocating well over €60 bn 2025-2028 to regulated networks (Iberdrola two-thirds of €58 bn to T&D, Enel >€26 bn to grids); EU data-centre electricity demand growth of more than 50% between 2025 and 2030; RED 42.5-45% mandate forces grid upgrade | Iberdrola, Enel |
| 2 | Indian utility-scale solar + T&D | 52.3% non-fossil already (Jan 2026); cumulative 279 GW RE / 154 GW solar / 56 GW wind as of 30 April 2026; second-largest global RE growth market per IEA; PGCIL ₹3.07 lakh crore pipeline; PLI protects domestic supply chain | Adani Green, Power Grid Corp, Tata Power, Suzlon |
| 3 | UK offshore wind (post-AR6) | 60 GW 2030 target; 5.3 GW of offshore awarded in AR6; Ørsted's Hornsea 3 (2,955 MW) is the world's largest single offshore wind farm by capacity; Iberdrola East Anglia | Ørsted, Iberdrola, SSE plc |
| 4 | Saudi solar + green H₂ | 14 GW tendered 2026; AA-rated sovereign; NEOM scaling; Vision 2030 anchor | ACWA Power; indirectly via Iberdrola/Brookfield |
| 5 | Spain solar + BESS | Best continental solar resource; lowest power prices (€62/MWh forward); strong corporate PPA market | Iberdrola, Acciona Energía, EDP Renováveis |
| 6 | Chile utility-scale storage | 1.6 GW BESS operational + 27 GW pipeline — global leader in storage-to-renewable ratio | Indirect via Brookfield Renewable (Isagen) |
| 7 | European onshore wind | Vestas €71.9 bn record backlog; onshore +7-9% CAGR ex-China; EU repowering creates near-term revenue | Vestas, Iberdrola, Enel |
| 8 | Brazil renewable T&D | ~$120 bn reais (~$24 bn) transmission build planned through 2030 specifically targeting renewable evacuation; ~20% national curtailment in 2025 | Engie Brasil, Eletrobras, BEP |
The recommendation defaults to listed equities for a portfolio in the $25k-$1m position-size range. Reasons: liquidity, tax treatment (treaty-reduced withholding via W-8BEN), no minimum tickets, ability to size by conviction.
| Ticker | Name | What it gets you |
|---|---|---|
| IBE.MC / IBDRY | Iberdrola (Spain) | 58 GW capacity; 65% regulated networks; UK + US + Iberia + Brazil; €58 bn 2025-2028 plan |
| ENEL.MI / ENLAY | Enel (Italy) | 76+ GW (rising to 80+ GW by 2028); 60% regulated networks; Italy + Iberia + Latam |
| EDP.LS / EDPFY | EDP (Portugal) | Pan-Iberian utility; majority owner of EDP Renováveis |
| EDPR.LS | EDP Renováveis | Pure-play renewable developer; Iberia + LatAm + US |
| SSE.L | SSE plc (UK) | UK renewable + T&D; investing £18 bn 2026-2032 |
| NG.L | National Grid (UK/US) | Pure-play T&D; UK + US northeast — defensive grid play |
| RWE.DE / RWEOY | RWE (Germany) | Germany's largest post-coal-exit renewable developer; offshore wind concentration |
| TTE.PA / TTE | TotalEnergies (France) | Oil major with €5 bn/yr renewable capex; 35 GW renewable target 2030 |
| Ticker | Name | What it gets you |
|---|---|---|
| ORSTED.CO / DNNGY | Ørsted (Denmark) | Offshore-wind pure-play; 10.2 GW operating + 8.1 GW under construction |
| ADANIGREEN.NS / ADGGF | Adani Green Energy (India) | India pure-play; 14.2 GW operational, 50 GW by 2030 target |
| TATAPOWER.NS | Tata Power (India) | Diversified Indian utility + renewables developer |
| ANE.MC | Acciona Energía (Spain) | Pure renewables spin-off of Acciona; Spain + LatAm + Australia |
| Ticker | Name | What it gets you |
|---|---|---|
| VWS.CO / VWSYY | Vestas (Denmark) | #1 onshore wind OEM ex-China; 30% market share; €71.9 bn backlog |
| POWERGRID.NS / PWGR.BO | Power Grid Corp India | India transmission pure-play; ₹3.07 lakh crore pipeline |
| SU.PA | Schneider Electric (France) | Grid + datacenter + electrification picks-and-shovels |
| SUZLON.NS | Suzlon Energy (India) | Indian onshore wind OEM; recovery turnaround |
| 2082.SR | ACWA Power (Saudi) | Largest MENA developer; NEOM partner; access via QFI or KSA ETF proxy |
| Ticker | Name | Non-US | Use case |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICLN | iShares Global Clean Energy | ~57% | Cheapest broad-based; concentrated in Iberdrola, Vestas, EDP, Ørsted, Suzlon, Equatorial, CEMIG |
| TAN | Invesco Solar | Mixed | US-tilted; less aligned to thesis |
| FAN | First Trust Global Wind Energy | High | Pure wind play; thin liquidity |
| GRID | First Trust Smart Grid | ~50% | Closer to T&D thesis than ICLN |
Honest take: ICLN is the cleanest single-ETF vehicle, but its top 10 overlaps heavily with the shortlist below — owning ICLN + 4-6 conviction names is roughly equivalent to owning the shortlist, weighted differently. Either approach works.39
KKR Global Infrastructure Investors VI · Brookfield Global Transition Fund (BGTF II/III) · BlackRock GIP · Macquarie Asset Management GIG. Minimums typically $5m+. For retail, BEP/BEPC is the listed-equity proxy for Brookfield infra LP commitment without the lock-up.
The honest answer: the two theses are complementary, not competitive.
The US AI-infra thesis (the BOM-archetype work, Noldor-platform research) is about power supply for AI compute build-out, capex concentrated in the US. It assumes US hyperscaler capex drives Tier-1 data-center power demand, which drives gas/nuclear/grid build-out, with renewables as the secondary/tertiary supply layer in the US specifically.
The non-US renewables thesis is about renewable power supply globally, with a structural overweight to non-US geographies driven by policy. Most demand-side pull is not AI — it's general electrification, EU industrial reshoring, India middle-class electrification, EV charging, heating decarbonization.
Position sizes suggested as % of the total non-US-renewables allocation, not of total portfolio.
| # | Ticker | Name | Exposure | Suggested weight | Entry timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IBE.MC / IBDRY | Iberdrola | EU grids + UK offshore + Iberia RE + Brazil + US networks | 15-18% (core) | Initiate now; ADR liquid; avg in 4-6 wks |
| 2 | BEP / BEPC | Brookfield Renewable Partners | Global diversified; 47 GW operating, 200 GW pipeline; hydro-heavy | 12-15% (core) | Initiate now; BEPC for tax-simpler exposure |
| 3 | POWERGRID.NS / PWGR.BO | Power Grid Corp India | India T&D pure-play; ₹3.07 lakh cr pipeline | 10-12% | Phase in; consider INR hedge or accept FX |
| 4 | ORSTED.CO / DNNGY | Ørsted | UK + EU offshore wind pure-play | 8-10% | Confirm 2026 dividend reinstates; entry attractive on US-policy weakness |
| 5 | VWS.CO / VWSYY | Vestas | #1 onshore wind OEM ex-China; €71.9 bn backlog | 8-10% | Initiate on any pullback |
| 6 | ENEL.MI / ENLAY | Enel | EU grids + LatAm; €53 bn plan; EPS target €0.80-0.82 by 2028 | 8-10% | Initiate now |
| 7 | ADANIGREEN.NS / ADGGF | Adani Green Energy | India RE pure-play; 14 → 50 GW by 2030 | 5-7% | Cap due to governance complexity; entry now-fine |
| 8 | EDPR.LS | EDP Renováveis | Iberian + LatAm + US developer | 5-7% | Hold parent EDP if EDPR access difficult |
| 9 | ANE.MC | Acciona Energía | Spanish + global pure-play | 4-6% | Smaller-cap; size accordingly |
| 10 | NG.L | National Grid | UK + US northeast T&D defensive | 4-6% | Defensive sleeve; rate-sensitive |
| 11 | ICLN | iShares Global Clean Energy ETF | One-ticket diversification | 5-10% (substitute) | Use if you don't want 6+ individual names |
| 12 | 2082.SR | ACWA Power | MENA pure-play | 2-3% (if accessible) | Tadawul access via QFI; KSA ETF as proxy |
Five tickets, four currencies (EUR, USD, INR, DKK), ~$2.3 trillion of combined EV across the renewable + grid build-out.
EUR/USD 1.05-1.15 band over 24 months; INR/USD depreciates ~3%/yr on multi-year average; DKK pegged to EUR. Mitigation: regulated-utility positions have local-currency revenue matching local-currency cost base; on dividend yield, currency is translation effect, not fundamentals risk. For $500k+ positions, consider EUR hedge via HEDJ overlay. For $50k positions, accept FX as part of the bet.
Modules below $0.09/W good for project IRRs, bad for non-Chinese module makers. JinkoSolar 2024 revenue -42.7% YoY, big impairments.28 Mitigation: the thesis avoids pure-play solar manufacturers; recommended names are developers, integrated utilities, equipment (Vestas) — none manufacture solar modules.
Renewable developers and regulated utilities are duration-sensitive. Mitigation: regulated-network positions have rate-resetting RAB returns over the regulatory cycle; pure-play developers carry more duration risk. Weight regulated > pure-play developer in a rising-rate scenario.
The most underappreciated risk. Already material in Brazil (~20% of available solar and wind energy lost to curtailment nationally in 2025 per Volt Robotics), with Chile and Colombia exhibiting similar dynamics.20 Curtailment caps developer IRRs. Mitigation: the thesis specifically overweights T&D names (Power Grid Corp, National Grid, Iberdrola networks) — they benefit from solving this exact bottleneck. Curtailment pain accelerates the T&D capex cycle, which is the exact thesis.
None visible in policy or commodity data as of mid-May 2026. If any one fires, reweight; if two fire, exit the thesis.
snapshots/2026-04-30-mnre-physical-progress.htmlsnapshots/2023-05-neom-green-hydrogen.htmlsnapshots/2026-04-entsoe-data-centres.pdf + summary snapshots/2026-05-15-entso-e-summary.htmlsnapshots/2024-09-orsted-hornsea-ar6-award.htmlsnapshots/2025-05-orsted-hornsea4-discontinue.htmlAll cited URLs retrieved or re-snapshotted 2026-05-19. Local-disk snapshots: research/2026-05-19-renewables-outside-us-research/snapshots/. UNREACHABLE/403 sources (Iberdrola plan/press, IRENA press, Saudi Times, PIB India, Adani PDF, Vestas PDF, Iberdrola Factbook, Akin Gump) corroborated via secondary coverage and noted in MANIFEST.