BriefDrafted 2026-07-09

Is NVIDIA historically cheap on a relative basis? (as of 2026-07-08)

Short answer: yes — decisively so against its own 5–10-year multiple history and against the large-cap AI-semi peers compared here (AMD, Broadcom, TSMC), especially growth-adjusted. Two honest caveats: the discount shrinks over a 20-year window, and “cheap” leans entirely on consensus estimates that assume revenue nearly doubles again.

The tape. NVDA closed at $204.12 on 2026-07-08 1 (≈$4.94T market cap 1). That is ≈31x trailing earnings 2 and roughly 18–23x forward earnings depending on the denominator: 19.82x per stockanalysis.com 3, 21.7x per YCharts 4, 23.0x per GuruFocus (as of June 15) 5, and 18x on next-12-month earnings per Bloomberg data — its lowest since early 2019, and now below the S&P 500’s 20x-plus forward multiple 6. Part of that spread is denominator choice (which fiscal year, which estimate set) and part is genuine vendor disagreement on the same next-twelve-month basis; the four readings above all land in the high-teens-to-low-20s.

Versus its own history — the core test. NVDA’s fiscal-year-end trailing P/E ran 73.6x (FY2021) 7 → 62.8x 7 → 106.4x (depressed-EPS FY2023) 7 → 51.6x 7 → 39.9x 7 → 37.8x (FY2026) 7; today’s ≈31x 2 is about half the 5-year average of ~63x 89 and well under the 10-year average of ~58x 9. Forward tells the same story: a May 26 BofA note puts the stock at 17.5x its calendar-2027 estimate 10 against its own five-year average multiple of 33.6x 10 — nearly 48% below 10; Deutsche Bank’s late-March chartbook had it at ~16x projected 2027 earnings 11, some 45% below its historical median on a two-year-forward basis 11; and the NTM multiple (22.22x on July 8) is the lowest since June 2019 12. The caveat: over 20 years the average trailing multiple is ~41x 9, so the “historically cheap” claim is strongest on the AI-era 5–10-year window, more modest against all time.

Versus peers and the market. Comparing within the same vendor and basis: on stockanalysis.com NVDA’s 19.82x forward 3 sits below Broadcom’s 24.68x 13 and TSMC’s 22.77x 14; on finviz’s next-fiscal-year basis NVDA is 16.2x 15 against AMD’s 38.9x 16 and Broadcom’s 20.0x 17; on Yahoo’s NTM basis NVDA’s 22.22x 12 compares with AMD’s 73.5x 12. NVDA also trades ~42% below the semis-sector median forward multiple of 38.78x (as of June 24) 18 and below BofA’s late-May SOX reading of ~25.6x 10, while carrying only a ~9% premium to the S&P 500’s 20.4x forward (NVDA’s 22.22x NTM 12 against the S&P’s 20.4x 19; on Bloomberg’s lower 18x reading NVDA sits below the market 6) — a market multiple that itself sits above its own 5- and 10-year averages 19. On trailing earnings NVDA (≈31x 20) is now the cheapest of the set outright — AMD 168x 21, Broadcom 62.8x 22, TSMC 33.1x 23. Growth-adjusted the gap widens: forward PEG ≈0.76 20 versus AMD 2.15 21, Broadcom 0.92 22, TSMC 1.16 23; BofA frames it as a 0.28 PEG on 2027 estimates — one of the lowest among major semis 10 — and calls the forward multiple a 7-year low, a 30–35% discount to mega-cap tech 24. Only EV/Sales cuts the other way — NVDA’s 19.5x 25 tops TSMC’s 15.1x 26, a reminder that the “cheap” case is an earnings-multiple case, made possible by NVDA’s extreme margins.

Why the multiple is compressed — and the real caveat. The de-rating is a denominator story, not a price collapse: fiscal Q1 2027 (ended April 2026) revenue was $81.6B, up 85% year over year 27, data center $75.2B, up 92% 27, with $91.0B guided for Q2 27. Consensus has FY2027 EPS at ~$8.98 28 on ~$392.9B revenue 28, rising to ~$12.63 on ~$560.4B in FY2028 28. So a ~20x forward multiple prices a revenue base consensus expects to nearly double this fiscal year ($215.9B FY2026 29 → ~$392.9B FY2027 28), off FY2026 GAAP diluted EPS of $4.90 29. That is the trade: the multiple is only “cheap” if those estimates broadly hold — the market is discounting AI-capex cyclicality and decel risk, not overlooking the growth. Your premise checks out on the evidence; the low multiple is the market’s way of charging for estimate risk rather than a free discount.

Method note: all four research questions closed ANSWERED on independent sources at round 1 (Q1: 7, Q2: 9, Q3: 17, Q4: 6; a later gap-fill round added four stated-vendor findings) — coverage log at vault/process/research-notes/nvda/coverage-round1.json, run narrative at vault/process/research-notes/nvda/run-notes.md. Known conflicts are documented in the findings store: forward-P/E spread (NTM vs FY1 vs CY2027 bases, plus same-basis vendor disagreement), enterprise-value cash-netting (~$4.87–4.94T 3015), EV/EBITDA broad-vs-operating (~25.6x 30 vs ~29.4x 15), a ~21% same-day vendor spread on Broadcom’s stated forward P/E 1317, and stockanalysis multiples that appear computed on the prior close, per the capture note on that snapshot 3. Five agent-computed ratios were excluded in favor of stated-source figures. Sources: 42 snapshots in vault/raw/research-nvda/primaries/ plus one reused prior-packet snapshot; findings: vault/raw/research-nvda/findings.jsonl (77 entries).

Sources

  1. FMP quote (symbol=NVDA), retrieved 2026-07-08 “NVDA share price at the 2026-07-08 market close (4:00 PM ET) was $204.12, up 3.65% from the prior close of $196.93”, 2026-07-08 · FMP quote (symbol=NVDA), retrieved 2026-07-08 · local: 2026-07-08-fmp-quote-NVDA.json · other ↩↩

  2. FMP metrics-ratios-ttm (symbol=NVDA), retrieved 2026-07-08 “NVDA trailing (TTM) P/E was 31.12 as of 2026-07-08 per FMP”, 2026-07-08 · FMP metrics-ratios-ttm (symbol=NVDA), retrieved 2026-07-08 · local: 2026-07-08-fmp-metrics-ratios-ttm-NVDA.json · other ↩↩

  3. stockanalysis.com “NVDA forward P/E per stockanalysis.com was 19.82 as of 2026-07-08 (next-twelve-month consensus EPS basis)”, 2026-07-08 · https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/statistics/ · local: 2026-07-08-stockanalysis-com-nvda-statistics.md · other ↩↩↩

  4. www.fool.com “NVDA forward P/E per YCharts data as cited by The Motley Fool, 2026-07-08 — equal to the S&P 500 forward multiple”, 2026-07-08 · https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/07/08/nvidia-stock-is-down-17-from-its-high-is-the-artif/ · local: 2026-07-08-fool-com-nvidia-down-17-finally-cheap.md · Trade press ↩

  5. www.gurufocus.com “NVDA forward P/E per GuruFocus, as of 2026-06-15”, 2026-06-15 · https://www.gurufocus.com/term/forward-pe-ratio/NVDA · local: 2026-07-08-gurufocus-com-nvda-forward-pe.md · other ↩

  6. financialpost.com “NVDA forward P/E on next-12-month consensus earnings (Bloomberg data) after the mid-2026 selloff, as of 2026-07-08 — lowest since early 2019”, 2026-07-08 · https://financialpost.com/investing/nvidias-slide-sends-valuation-to-pre-ai-boom-levels · local: 2026-07-08-financialpost-com-nvidia-valuation-pre-ai-boom.md · Trade press ↩↩

  7. FMP metrics-ratios (symbol=NVDA, period=annual, limit=12), retrieved 2026-07-08 “NVDA trailing P/E at fiscal-year-end FY2021 (fiscal year ended 2021-01-31)”, 2026-07-08 · FMP metrics-ratios (symbol=NVDA, period=annual, limit=12), retrieved 2026-07-08 · local: 2026-07-08-fmp-metrics-ratios-nvda-annual-limit12.json · other ↩↩↩↩↩↩

  8. vcpscanner.com “NVDA five-year average trailing P/E per VCP Scanner, as of 2026-07-04”, 2026-07-04 · https://vcpscanner.com/stock/nvda/pe-history · local: 2026-07-08-vcpscanner-com-nvda-pe-history.md · other ↩

  9. tgmcharts.com “NVDA five-year average trailing P/E per TGMCharts, as of 2026-06-26”, 2026-06-26 · https://tgmcharts.com/stocks/NVDA/pe-ratio · local: 2026-07-08-tgmcharts-com-nvda-pe-ratio.md · other ↩↩↩

  10. www.benzinga.com “NVDA P/E on calendar-2027 estimated earnings per BofA (Vivek Arya) semiconductor note, as of 2026-05-26”, 2026-05-26 · https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/26/05/52782870/bofa-nvidia-micron-cheap-ai-bubble-chip-rally · local: 2026-07-08-benzinga-com-bofa-ai-bubble-nvda-cheap-5yr-avg.md · Sell-side ↩↩↩↩↩

  11. www.investopedia.com “NVDA P/E on projected 2027 earnings per Deutsche Bank semiconductor valuation chartbook, as cited by Investopedia 2026-03-24”, 2026-03-24 · https://www.investopedia.com/here-s-why-nvidia-s-stock-looks-relatively-cheap-according-to-these-experts-nvda-11933637 · local: 2026-07-08-investopedia-com-deutsche-bank-nvda-relatively-cheap.md · Sell-side ↩↩

  12. rollingout.com “NVIDIA's next-twelve-months forward P/E slipped to 22.22 times on July 8, 2026 — its lowest level since June 2019, when the ratio sat at 22.47x”, 2026-07-08 · https://rollingout.com/2026/07/08/nvidia-stock-valuation-multiyear/ · local: 2026-07-08-rollingout-com-nvidia-stock-valuation-multiyear.md · Trade press ↩↩↩↩

  13. stockanalysis.com “Broadcom (AVGO) trades at 24.68 times forward earnings as stated by stockanalysis.com's AVGO quote page ('Forward PE' statistic), market data through the 2026-07-08 close”, 2026-07-08 · https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/avgo/ · local: 2026-07-08-stockanalysis-com-avgo-quote.html · other ↩↩

  14. stockanalysis.com “TSMC (TSM) trades at 22.77 times forward earnings as stated by stockanalysis.com's TSM quote page ('Forward PE' statistic), market data through the 2026-07-08 close”, 2026-07-08 · https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsm/ · local: 2026-07-08-stockanalysis-com-tsm-quote.html · other ↩

  15. finviz.com “NVDA forward P/E per finviz.com was 16.16 as of the 2026-07-08 close, on finviz's 'EPS next Y' basis of $12.63 (= FY2028 consensus, fiscal year ending January 2028)”, 2026-07-08 · https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NVDA · local: 2026-07-08-finviz-com-nvda-quote.md · other ↩↩↩

  16. finviz.com “AMD trades at 38.93 times next-fiscal-year earnings as stated by finviz.com's AMD quote page ('Forward P/E', defined on-page as next fiscal year), retrieved 2026-07-08”, 2026-07-08 · https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AMD · local: 2026-07-08-finviz-com-amd-quote.html · other ↩

  17. finviz.com “Broadcom (AVGO) trades at 20.00 times next-fiscal-year earnings as stated by finviz.com's AVGO quote page ('Forward P/E', defined on-page as next fiscal year), retrieved 2026-07-08”, 2026-07-08 · https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AVGO · local: 2026-07-08-finviz-com-avgo-quote.html · other ↩↩

  18. pomegra.io “The semiconductor sector median forward P/E stood at 38.78 times in late June 2026, with NVIDIA's roughly 22x forward multiple representing a 41.8 percent discount to that median”, 2026-06-24 · https://pomegra.io/news/nvda-cheaper-than-semis-how-to-play-the-gap · local: 2026-07-08-pomegra-io-nvda-cheaper-than-semis.md · Trade press ↩

  19. advantage.factset.com “The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20.4 as of the FactSet Earnings Insight report dated July 2, 2026 — above the 5-year average of 19.9 and the 10-year average of 19.0”, 2026-07-02 · https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_070226.pdf · local: 2026-07-08-advantage-factset-com-earnings-insight-070226.txt · other ↩↩

  20. FMP metrics-ratios-ttm (NVDA), retrieved 2026-07-08 “NVIDIA trades at 31.1 times trailing (TTM GAAP) earnings as of 2026-07-08 (FMP priceToEarningsRatioTTM 31.12; TTM EPS $6.57)”, 2026-07-08 · FMP metrics-ratios-ttm (NVDA), retrieved 2026-07-08 · local: 2026-07-08-fmp-metrics-ratios-ttm-nvda-amd-avgo-tsm.json · other ↩↩

  21. FMP metrics-ratios-ttm (AMD), retrieved 2026-07-08 “AMD trades at 168.0 times trailing (TTM GAAP) earnings as of 2026-07-08 (FMP priceToEarningsRatioTTM 167.99; TTM EPS $3.07)”, 2026-07-08 · FMP metrics-ratios-ttm (AMD), retrieved 2026-07-08 · local: 2026-07-08-fmp-metrics-ratios-ttm-nvda-amd-avgo-tsm.json · other ↩↩

  22. FMP metrics-ratios-ttm (AVGO), retrieved 2026-07-08 “Broadcom trades at 62.8 times trailing (TTM GAAP) earnings as of 2026-07-08 (FMP priceToEarningsRatioTTM 62.79; TTM EPS $6.18)”, 2026-07-08 · FMP metrics-ratios-ttm (AVGO), retrieved 2026-07-08 · local: 2026-07-08-fmp-metrics-ratios-ttm-nvda-amd-avgo-tsm.json · other ↩↩

  23. FMP metrics-ratios-ttm (TSM), retrieved 2026-07-08 “TSMC trades at 33.1 times trailing (TTM) earnings as of 2026-07-08 (FMP priceToEarningsRatioTTM 33.14)”, 2026-07-08 · FMP metrics-ratios-ttm (TSM), retrieved 2026-07-08 · local: 2026-07-08-fmp-metrics-ratios-ttm-nvda-amd-avgo-tsm.json · other ↩↩

  24. www.benzinga.com “BofA Global Research (July 8, 2026) says NVIDIA is trading at a 7-year-low 18 times forward P/E, a 30 to 35 percent valuation discount to its mega-cap technology peers”, 2026-07-08 · https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/26/07/60326448/is-nvda-stock-a-buy-bofa-says-tech-giants-massive-moat-is-completely-unappreciated-sees-78-upside · local: 2026-07-08-benzinga-com-bofa-nvda-moat-unappreciated.md · Sell-side ↩

  25. FMP key-metrics-ttm (NVDA), retrieved 2026-07-08 “NVIDIA trades at an enterprise value of 19.5 times trailing-twelve-month revenue as of 2026-07-08 (EV $4.944 trillion against TTM revenue of roughly $253 billion)”, 2026-07-08 · FMP key-metrics-ttm (NVDA), retrieved 2026-07-08 · local: 2026-07-08-fmp-key-metrics-ttm-nvda-amd-avgo-tsm.json · other ↩

  26. FMP key-metrics-ttm (TSM), retrieved 2026-07-08 “TSMC trades at an enterprise value of 15.1 times trailing-twelve-month revenue as of 2026-07-08 (EV TWD 61.90 trillion against TTM revenue of roughly TWD 4.10 trillion)”, 2026-07-08 · FMP key-metrics-ttm (TSM), retrieved 2026-07-08 · local: 2026-07-08-fmp-key-metrics-ttm-nvda-amd-avgo-tsm.json · other ↩

  27. nvidianews.nvidia.com “Q1 FY2027 total revenue (GAAP), quarter ended 2026-04-26, reported 2026-05-20”, 2026-05-20 · https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2027 · local: 2026-07-08-nvidianews.nvidia.com-q1-fy2027-earnings.html · Primary ↩↩↩

  28. FMP analyst “FY2027 consensus EPS estimate (fiscal year ending 2027-01-25), FMP consensus set”, 2026-07-08 · FMP analyst/financial-estimates (symbol=NVDA, period=annual, limit=6), retrieved 2026-07-08 · local: 2026-07-08-fmp-analyst-financial-estimates-nvda-annual.json · other ↩↩↩↩

  29. FMP statements “FY2026 full-year revenue (GAAP), fiscal year ended 2026-01-25”, 2026-07-08 · FMP statements/income-statement (symbol=NVDA, period=annual, limit=3), retrieved 2026-07-08 · local: 2026-07-08-fmp-statements-income-statement-nvda-annual.json · other ↩↩

  30. FMP key-metrics-ttm (symbol=NVDA), retrieved 2026-07-08 “NVDA enterprise value per FMP (market cap minus cash-and-cash-equivalents plus total debt) was $4,943.57 billion as of 2026-07-08”, 2026-07-08 · FMP key-metrics-ttm (symbol=NVDA), retrieved 2026-07-08 · local: 2026-07-08-fmp-key-metrics-ttm-NVDA.json · other ↩↩